European Economic Research

July 17, 2020


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The slight break upwards at the beginning of the year can be explained by technical factors, a trend reversal for the good not much is so far yet to feel. Only the last slightly improved expectations component allows the hope that is the business climate in the second half of the year 2009 brightens up anything. Look we now compared to the development of the ZEW Konjunktuterwartungen, to identify any Parallels. The index which is the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) economic expectations also a lot profile counter. The economic expectations of 350 surveyed financial market experts included in the calculation, which is published a week before the IFO data. The importance of the ZEW index is the fact that he should indicate as an early indicator of economic turning points. Unlike the IFO data presented in the previous section, the ZEW sentiment revealed following development: it to be lit especially the fluctuation joyous development in this regard in 2008.

ZEW economic sentiment that culminated in a record low 63.9 points have occurred during the summer months. In September, kickback could then followed a significant lightening in October, before the following three months brought slight improvements. The hope of the Financial market experts, the extensive economic stimulus packages could make possible a speedy economic recovery, showed up in February 2009, as the ZEW index took a surprising jump to 5.8 meters. The latest figures from March confirmed this slight upward trend. The index value of 3.5 meters also represented the highest level since August 2007. It remains now to be seen, as the ZEW data coming will present themselves and whether really in the course of the year a little light will be seen at the end of the dark economic tunnel.